Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the most common type of liver cancer, is the fastest growing cause of cancer-related death in the United States.  While early detection of HCC through regular surveillance can improve survival, the optimal surveillance policies are unknown as of now.

In collaboration with MD Anderson Cancer Center, ISyE’s Turgay Ayer and team are proposing a novel modeling framework to determine the most cost-effective practical policies from a societal perspective to detect liver cancer.

In contrast to existing policies, the model considers surveillance policies that are stratified by patients' liver condition and age. The research team carefully calibrated the model parameters based on the best evidence from previously published observational studies. The results demonstrate that their proposed policies are more cost-effective than the recommended one-size-fits-all policies. Furthermore, unlike current surveillance policies, expanding surveillance to non-cirrhotic patients has great potential to improve survival outcomes and cost-effectiveness.