TITLE: Adversarial Risk Analysis:  Games and Auctions

SPEAKER: David Banks

ABSTRACT:

Classical game theory has been an unreasonable description for human
behavior, and traditional analyses make strong assumptions about common
knowledge and fixed payoffs.  Classical risk analysis has assumed that
the opponent is non-adversarial (i.e., "Nature") and thus is
inapplicable to many situations.  This work explores Bayesian
approaches to adversarial risk analysis, in which each opponent must
model the decision process of the other, but there is the opportunity
to use human judgment and subjective distributions.  The approach is
illustrated in the analysis of two important applications:  sealed bid
auctions and simple poker; some related work on counterbioterrorism is
also covered.  The results in these three applications are
interestingly different from those found in previous work.